Monday, November 3, 2008

Election Predictions and Random Thoughts

Will White People Riot? is interesting, but I think it misses the point. The thing that would incite a riot is not that one person won or lost. The incitement to riot would be if it looks like the election was not fair and large numbers of people were disenfranchised. If that were to happen, I could imagine riots. If McCain wins after trailing in all the polls, many people will think things smell fishy.

Prediction: There will be big problems on voting day. Guaranteed. The only reasonable hope is that the vote is not close so that a 5% swing is not a big deal and re-counts are unnecessary. If it looks like 1% voter fraud, but the spread is 10%, then everything will be OK. On the other hand, if it looks like 2% voter fraud and a 1% spread, then things will turn ugly. I really hope it doesn't come down to a single state such as Ohio.

The Economist has endorsed Obama. Their article about the endorsement is called It's Time. They make several excellent points in the article. They bring up just about every one of my problems with Obama, but they also bring up all my problems with McCain. Here is one of my favorite quotes:
A spell in opposition seemed apt punishment for the incompetence, cronyism and extremism of the Bush presidency.... Somehow Ronald Reagan's party of western individualism and limited government has ended up not just increasing the size of the state but turning it into a tool of southern-fried moralism.
Anyway, It's an excellent read.

2 comments:

Matthew Avitabile said...

I wrote about this a little while back:

http://jumpinginpools.blogspot.com/2008/10/if-obama-loses-cities-will-burn.html

Sasha said...

Well said. BTW, I finally got Russ to open up ...